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| Marianna Kyse¾ová - Spratly Islands Conflict |
10.3.2008 |
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Spratly Islands Conflict
Spratly Archipelago in the South China Sea consists of up to 120 islands. Most of them are only blank rocks and coral reefs. Islands are spread out of an area more than 250.000 square kilometers. The land is not arable, does not support permanent crops, and has no meadows, pastures or forests. Furthermore, the Spratly Islands have not been occupied by humans until recently. On the contrary, the islands have been matter of a longterm dispute among neightbouring states: People’s Rebublic of China, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei. The conflict is the result of overlapping sovereignty claims to various Spratly Islands thought to posess substantial natural resources, mainly oil, natural gas, and seafood.
Counterparts engage in permanent diplomatic struggle which resulted in a lot of millitary incidents and clashes. According to James Kiras a contributing editor of the journal Peacekeeping & International Relations and professor at University in Hull, one of the several studies of China’s national economy estimates that oil reserves in the South China Sea are larger than present oil reserves of Kuwait. Oil and natural gas reserves in the Spratly region are estimated at 17.7 billion tons. Kuwait's reserves amount to 13 billion tons.
Big Red Energetic Colossus
The Spratly Islands dispute dates probably into the first decades of the 20th. century. At that time, each country begins to bring in its territorial claims upon the Spratly Islands. Increasing energetic demands of China in continual proportion with the boost of national economy but also according to remission of options to exploit homeland energy resources, has propelled China’s major efforts to look for alternative energy resources and though into extensive exploration of the South China Sea. In term of geografical range together with costs concerning exploration and exploitation of potential raw materials resources, Spratly Islands happened to be the ultimative drawing off coast area.
As a professor of Japanese studies and the chairman of the Edwin O. Reischauer East Asian Studies Centre Kent Calder pointed out, China‘s balance of trade has aggravated since the last decade of the 20th. century. Moreover due to China’s trade instability intertwinned with market swings, sales fluctulation, variation in prices and in investments of foreign and also of domestic companies, has the country implanted itself as net import merchant of chiefly oil and oil products in the last 25 years. Dependence from oil import initiated a domino effect in national economy. It commenced in mounting up the fuel prices, continued with low energy consuption per persona (40% of world’s average) and it will end with highest liability by overloading the economy. As long as there isn’t a plausible solution to tacle this heavy obstacle, to find a way how to cope with astronomic costs blundered into reproduction process, waste products and deeply concerns of work security, enviromental and social risks and risk management (pertinent to increasing nuclear power demands, because the country isn’t economicaly, substantialy, nor technicaly ready to substitute alternative energy resources), oil products will remain China’s only midterm and in worst case as longterm leading energy source. Therefore is the occupation of the Spratly Archipelago a grave concern.
Following Japaneese professor Shigeo Hiramatsua, China’s homeland petroleum refineries, especially insufficient equipped drilling machines along with inadequate extraction technologies, surely disable energy production enhancement which would provide coverage to increasing energy demands. Hence, the import of oil and natural gas must be increased, otherwise new oil fields must be found or China would be obliged to find and apply new technologies. And the Spratly Islands have got the lowest start-up costs and highest future benefits.
The Spratly dispute begins to deteriorate recently. Besides China’s striving for hegemony in the south-east Asian region, the foreign petroleum companies and their efforts to be in power of one of the world’s oil richest area are to blame. The companies are willing to undertake risky operations regardless of enviromental costs and human rights violation. Of course there are some essential purposes. Prospects for new oil resources as replacement for reserves on American continent and in the North Sea, where exploration hits the top in theese days. Even though they are negligent or they simply ignore the fact of disturbing and invading the fragile balance of power and political and social stability.
China has granted permission to drill in the area to several foreign petroleum companies. For instance, the refinery China National Offshore Corp. signed a joint venture contract with Crestone Energy Corp. However, the contract concerns disputed Spratly area. It was the Chinese-American deal that infuriated Vietnam claiming the location of the contract was a part of Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. The situation was further aggravated in 1996, when Vietnam forged ahead with joint exploration plans in Spratly waters also claimed by China. In the same year, Vietnam awarded exploration rights to Conoco, infuriating China. China claims that the area covered in the 1996 Vietnam-Conoco deal overlaps with the block awarded to Crestone Energy by China in 1992.
Besides awarding drilling rights to foreign corporations, furthermore, China conducts military exercises and builts up its airforce and naval fleet. The Financial Times released in August of 1996 an article pointing out a new type of surveillance unit, a radar of high sensitivity against anomalies in radio waves, which China bought from Great Britain. The facility poses a kind of system of early warning against immediate and unavoidable attack. Certainly, the radar makes possible a better provision of strategic deployment of warships across South China Sea. Not mention China’s private hanky-pank trades, like for example buying neighbouring Malaysia’s petroleum below market cost. China’s position in south-east Asia is getting solid, hence, its influence and role of an adamant actor in the international petroleum trade dwelling.
Other players in the tilt-yard
The Spratly Islands dispute entails a potencial danger fot the whole region. Besides China also Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and Brunei set up their territorial claims. As a mater of fact the conflict embodies an outgrowth of decades of struggles to conquer rich mineral resources and fishing areas.
Discrepancies among counterparts are hitting the top, notably because of China’s military engagement as an world’s oil giant who begins to sense needs (mainly in recent years) to cover daily energy consumption in millions of kWh. The crisis emerges into contemporary military confrontations. Not mention, the adversaries reckless award exploration and drilling rights to foreign corporations and so they put patience of each other into risk. National states which do not take place in the dispute, are more and more anxious over Spratly conflict undoubtly jeopardizing regional peace and stability. Therefore they founded an regional discussion forum to find out a solution out of this deadlock.
There is one thing left to mention. The Spratly Islands dispute has all features of a regional dispute marked by territorial claims and zealous ambitions to control mineral resources. There has appeared a shape of solution by the ASEAN members, a glimpse of hope to end the dispute by a declaration signed in 1992. The declaration binded the members resolve the dispute by peaceful means. Other, not less important paragraph was a joint exploitation of mineral resources in the region. China’s military agression and ambitions to occupy Spratly waters by itself (particulary since the declaration) although put the validity of the declaration into question.
All these facts mentioned in this analysis rise a question, what the solution by peaceful means should be. How can the members of ASEAN solve a problem, where real politics, Joseph Nye’s hard power and striving for Haushoffer’s „lebensraum“ pave the way?
But the energetic colossus China is not the only one player in the tilt-yard. Also Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam defend their territorial claims in the Spratly region by historical meanings.
Taiwan demands posession and drilling rights over all Spratly Islands. Hence, its national economy depends upon naval trade and important shipping lanes pass through waters surrounding the Spratly Islands.
Vietnam as well as Taiwan claims all islands in the archipelago. They occur on the maps of Vietnam since the 17th. century. At the Conference in San Francisco on 7th. July 1951 concerning peace treaty with Japan, the Vietnamese envoyee Tran Van Huu asserted the archipelago belongs to the territorial unity of Vietnam’s soil. No one of other envoyees had objections. So after French‘ withdrawal Vietnam exercised sovereign power over the islands. On 22nd. September 1958 a daily newspaper printed out Northern Vietnam‘s prime minister’s letter send to the deputy of China’s foreign minister. This letter was a de facto recognition of China’s sovereignity over the islands. However, South Vietnam annexed the Paracel Islands in 1961. His thoughless action revived a dispute that emerged into naval battle of Spratly Islands in 1974. 31 islands are now under Vietnam’s occupation. They‘re an important oil nad natural gas resources. Exept the White Tiger field (400 km west of the Crestone block) they’re also Vietnam’s only. Anyway, in 1992 Vietnam refused awarding exploitation rights to foreign companies.
Malaysia is a new producer in the world of oil refineries. It provides one refinery at the Corner of Africa and a deal with Iran comes into being. Malaysia claims three islands and four rock blocks. Malaysia’s government owns all stocks in Petronas corporation (Petroliam Nasional Berhad) which has been established in 1974. Petronas has been granted exploration rights on whole Malaysia’s territory. It’s one of the biggest national corporations in the world. In 2007 the Financial Times pointed it out as one of the „seven sisters“ – seven biggest oil companies outside OECD.
Philippines demand exploration and drilling rights on 60 islands of the archipelago. Firtst time they set up their territorial claims at the UNO Assembly in 1946. 25 years later president Ferdinant Marcos annexed 53 islands in the Spratly region known as the Kalayaan state (Freedom Island). It became a part of Palawan province a year later.
Joint venture Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Alcorn International would raise Philippine’s oil production dramaticaly from today’s 3000 barrels a day hoisting from seven wells in the South China Sea.
Brunei claims territorial sovereignity over Louisa Reef in the Spratly Archipelago, located adjacent to its coastline. Heretofore, Brunei provides nine oil fields which hover 143.000 barrels a day.
Powerful private kingdoms
Undoubtly, there is an evidence the Spratly Islands dispute turns to be a conflict of global meaning, namely the indirectly engagement of the United States of America in the sphere of financial assistance, trade machinery and military support. In a most manner, it’s an intervention via american oil and trade corporations. For example, through powerful investment bank JP Morhan Chase (third world’s largest financial corporation after Bank of America and Citigroup and one of the leading providers of investment banking, share holding and management), Conoco Phillips Company, Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Halliburton Energy Services. Conoco was founded in 2002 by an amalgamation of two firms, Conoco Inc. and Phillips Petroleum Co. Since the beginning of 2008 is Shell the leading operator of the Gumusut-Kakap oil field in Sabah province, where bloody fightings for independence are still going on. Royal Dutch faced before the merger with Shell many acusations of destroying the ecosystem of reservations back in the United States and of sweat shopping in former Rhodesia, Sudan and Nigeria. Halliburton, well known because of controversial deals with Tim Spicer’s London based AEGIS, provides oil rigs and oil fields in 120 countries. Except employing of mercenaries and excercising escort services, human rights violation, financial and political scandals, but contacts to US governement (namely to the former vicepresident Dick Cheney during the Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003) have contributed to damage the corporation’s credit.
With reference to military engagement, the United States signed a bilateral protection treaty with Philipinnes. On the other hand, there is a little chance of involment and that the US governement would fulfill terms in this treaty during Spratly Islands dispute.
Alike the United States also Japan wants to contribute to the solution over the Spratly waters. The disputed area runs through shipping lines on which depends 70 % of Japan’s goods import from Middle East. Furthermore, in the Spratly Islands dispute are also interested some Japanese oil corporations which would very much like starting to drill in the area..
The United States, Japan, Indonesia and Russia, each of them sent a squadron of naval vessels into South China Sea. ASEAN’s member states are afraid of outgrowing power of People’s Republic of China and that it would lead – in case of American‘ withdrawal from the region – to outnumbering and overruning by its armed forces.
Even though, many western military experts agree that China’s weapon systems are obsolete, it’s definitely an ominous adversary to other countries in the south-east Asian region. It posts an imminent threat comparing to their armament options. Considering China and other member states of ASEAN, its military power is both qualitative and quantitative superior.
It couldn’t be more obvious that China’s eagerly to becom an regional superpower and strives for hegemony in the South China Sea.
Let’s take a look at the tablet below. It compares the strengh of the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China, Vietnam and Philipinnes in the South China Sea:
----------------------------------------------------------PRC----------------Vietnam--------------------Philippines
Tanks---------------------------------------------------9.200--------------2.000-----------------------126
Submarine----------------------------------------------51------------------0-----------------------------0
Destroyers and Fregates----------------------------55------------------7-----------------------------1
Reconnaisance and Coast Guard Airplanes-------870-----------------55---------------------------44
Combat Jets-------------------------------------------5.845--------------190--------------------------43
Armed Forces Personnel-----------------------------2.930.000---------572.000--------------------106.000
Conclusion
Territorial claims issues concern overseas departements have been long enough a subject to public international law standarts. Although, accepted standarts of shipping and border determination upon overseas departments are quite real (anchored in 1980s by UNCLOS) , it comes to contemporary violations of these standarts. The main reason may be enlarging meanings of undeveloped (or perhaps developed scarsely) countries and their rich mineral resources, where every foreign player strives for himself to gain sovereign power over its territory and energy exploitation just to pursue the imperative of national interrest. Offshore oil and natural gas exploitation has grown on importance in the last decades. Geological exploration hints that there are immense mineral resources deposits beyond the sea level than we have imagined.
Ali Alatas, former foreign minister of Indonesia and special UNO envoyee since 2003 assumes that there is only one liable possibility to solve the Spratly Islands dispute once and for all and without an agression that would lead to a regional war. His suggestion vests in foundation of an consultative semiofficial diskussion forum on intergovernmental grounds. People’s Rebublic of China brusquely repudiates such an opption and gains more land better by military meanings than by diplomacy as she did in 1974 by seizing the Paracel Islands or in 1988 the Johnsons Reef that belonged to Vietnam. China’s impertinent government ignores also recomendations of the south-east Asian regional forum of ASEAN and stresses the main purpose of it, i.e. exchange of views only not adopting binding decisions.
To solve the Spratly Islands dispute by peaceful meanings suggested also a member of the Programme for international economics and politics Mark Valencia. The expert in Asian affairs envisions a cooperative regime where China and Taiwan lay aside their historical differences and territorial claims and accept a shared posession of 51% of the Spratly region which would became demilitarised. Mark Valencia admits the cooperation among ASEAN partners is anything but perfect; but there is an possible solution shaping that must be noted. Otherwise, inaction and gridlock may inhibit regional cooperation development in spheres of collective security (fight against piracy as well as) and maybe outbreak of a new armed conflict. The impact of such a crisis would be immense not only for the tenuous peace and stability, economic development and trade stability in the South China Sea region, but also in would effect the meaning of the right of territorial sovereignity as embraced in the international law and of course the world’s oil and natural gas trade, it would cost an overload in fuel prices and further cause market fluctuations and trigger a domino effect alike in 1970s.
Bc. Marianna Kyselova
Faculty of Political Sciences and International Relations of Matej Bel University
Banska Bystrica
Member of ARES
Information sources:
www.southchinasea.org/docs/Swanstrom.pdf
www.journals.cambridge.org
www.encyclopedia.com
www.american.edu
www.ciaonet.org
www.paracelspratlyislands.blogspot.com
www.hampshireflag.co.uk
www.strom.clemson.edu/opinion/whitehurst/chinamissile.pdf
www.geocities.com/ccparty2002/strategic_competitor.html
jcr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/46/6/829.pdf
www.clingendael.nl/publications/1996/19960000_cru_paper.pdf
www.hiik.de/konfliktbarometer/pdf/ConflictBarometer_2004.pdf
www.asiafinest.com
www.fas.org
www.didyouknow.cd/story/disputes.htm
www.lib.pdx.edu/resources/maps/f_cia.html
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